Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 26.541692 29.401686 32.663133 36.710711 41.677256 47.682981 55.677701
2025-02-16 22.664832 26.348601 30.930573 37.241522 46.058905 58.583637 79.204485
2025-02-23 19.816770 23.791606 29.040625 36.848729 48.959261 68.843174 109.825134
2025-03-02 17.957841 22.105174 27.848949 36.962402 52.491682 81.957305 161.345237
2025-03-09 16.449678 20.628798 26.629538 36.650081 55.134045 95.260639 242.116374
2025-03-16 15.231110 19.381621 25.515478 36.199656 57.314967 109.439816 386.436888
2025-03-23 14.247133 18.351070 24.565107 35.792203 59.415104 125.678278 711.605703
2025-03-30 13.455202 17.517800 23.803930 35.548029 61.783873 145.925110 1928.482845
2025-04-06 12.657208 16.600488 22.794154 34.642599 62.299482 161.009735 11385.123853
2025-04-13 12.418279 16.517212 23.144199 36.429167 70.395828 226.325197 NaN
2025-04-20 11.865872 15.892064 22.495952 36.055481 72.463377 267.945777 NaN
2025-04-27 11.462231 15.473214 22.162162 36.287360 76.544056 345.393486 NaN
2025-05-04 11.106896 15.113963 21.910508 36.689199 81.634890 480.697385 NaN
2025-05-11 10.744957 14.719362 21.557193 36.803561 85.949242 685.101980 NaN
2025-05-18 10.333465 14.216725 20.959751 36.245306 87.510933 904.077594 NaN
2025-05-25 10.026127 13.870853 20.627611 36.281547 91.697331 1510.908197 NaN
2025-06-01 9.702592 13.478896 20.175238 35.947400 94.198402 2642.254120 NaN
2025-06-08 9.391673 13.092311 19.704269 35.498122 96.034985 5612.697062 NaN
2025-06-15 9.108536 12.739699 19.274659 35.098227 98.025816 27969.015989 NaN
2025-06-22 8.861264 12.437467 18.923350 34.859570 100.873142 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 8.567952 12.042330 18.362644 33.982163 99.757525 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 8.537089 12.105065 18.723441 35.710509 115.780156 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.319660 11.826699 18.368892 35.348881 118.240192 NaN NaN